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QUOTE: ì©«¥Ñ edmundcmh ©ó 2010-1-14 21:34 µoªí
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¨º»ò´N¥²¶·n¦^¨ì¤ä«ù®ðÔ·x¤Æ¤H¥Kªº¸tª« IPCC AR4 ¨¤W
ref http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf
¦³¤@ÂI§Ú»Ýn§ó¥¿,´N¬O IPCC ©Ò»{¬°ªº CO2 climate sensitivity ¤£¬O 3.2 «×,¦Ó¬O 3.0 «×
( " Progress since the TAR enables an assessment
that climate sensitivity is likely to be in the range of 2 to 4.5¢XC
with a best estimate of about 3¢XC"
From pg. 16 of IPCC AR4 )
¥Ñ 17 ªº¤å¦r¤Î 18 ¶ªº¹Ï¤¤¥i¥H¬Ý¨ì IPCC »{¬° 70 ¦~¥N«á®t¤£¦h©Ò¦³ªº·x¤Æ³£¬O¤H¬°°µ¦¨,¨S¦³¥ô¦ó³¡¥÷¬O¥Ñ¦ÛµM¦]¯À¼vÅT --- (*)
( "Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures
since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the
observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations."
From pg. 17 in IPCC AR4 )
¦Ó°ò©ó 24 ¶¹Ï¤¤ªº IPCC ªº®ðÔ¼Ò«¬µ²ªG¥H¤Î 23 ¶ªº¤å³¹©Ò«ü, 00 ¦Ü 20 ¦~®ð·Å·|Ä~Äò¥H¨C¤Q¦~ 0.2 «×¤W¤É,¦P®É, IPCC ¤£»{¬°¦ÛµM®ðÔÅܤƷ|¹ï¦a²y·Å«×¦³¥ô¦ó¼vÅT
( "For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2¢XC per decade
is projected for a range of SRES emissions scenarios.
Even if the concentrations of all GHGs and aerosols had
been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of
about 0.1¢XC per decade would be expected."
From pg. 24 in IPCC AR4 )
¦ý°ÝÃD¬O, 98 ¦~¤Ìº¸¥§¿Õ¥H¤Î 99-00 ¦~©Ô¥§®R«á¦a²y®ð·Å¨Ã¨S¦³¦p IPCC ©Ò®Æ¤W¤É,¦Ó¬O¤j¬ù«ù¥ ( ref http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-c ... 979_thru_Dec_09.jpg )
¤]´N¬O»¡, 00 ¦~¥H«á¥X²{¤F«ù¥·Å«×¬O¥Ñ IPCC ¤£ª¾¹Dªº¦ÛµM´`Àô¤Þ°_,©Ò¥H IPCC ®Ú¾Ú(*)³oÓ¦Ó¦ôpªº CO2 climate sensitivity ªÖ©w¬O°ª¦ô¤F
¦Ó°ò©ó¹L¥h¤Q¦~®ðÔ«ù¥³oÓ°ò·Ç,¥H¤Î IPCC »{¬° 70 ¦~¥N«á©Ò¦³ªº·x¤Æ³£¥Ñ¤H©Ò°µ¦¨³o¨âÓ¤wª¾¨Æ¹ê,¥i¥H±À½ IPCC "70 ¦~¥N«á©Ò¦³ªº·x¤Æ³£¥Ñ¤H©Ò°µ¦¨"³oÓµ²½×,¦Ó¤S¦]¹L¥h¤T¤Q¦~¤j®ðªº CO2 §t¶q¨C¦~¥Héwªº 2 ppm ªº¤ô¥¼Wªø,©Ò¥H¥ý¦æ°²³]¤HÃþ¼vÅT®ðÔªº factor ¬O¤@Ó constant,¹L¥h¤Q¦~®ð·Å«ù¥¤]´N¬O»¡ CO2 climate sensitivity ¤£¥i¯à¶W¹Lì¦ôpªº¤@¥b,©Ò¥H±o¥X"¤@©w¤£·|°ª©ó IPCC AR4 ©Ò»¡ªº 3.2 «×ªº¤@¥b"¤@¥y
¦Ü©ó¦³Ãö"Ó¤H»{¬° CO2 ¿¼Wªº climate sensitivity ¦b 0.5 - 1.5 «×¤§¶¡"¤@¥y,¤W 1.5 «×¤W±¤w¦³¸ÑÄÀ,¤U¼Æ¥Ø climate sensitivity «h¬O¨Ó¦Û Monckton (2008)
( n°O±o³o¬O»¡ CO2 ¥Ñ²{¤ô¥,§Y 388 ppm ¿¼W¤~¥i¥H¦³ 0.5 - 1.5 «×ªº¼W·Å,¤]´NnnÃB¥~ªº 388 ppm,¥H¹L¥h¤T¤Q¦~éwªº 2 ppm ¼Wªøpºâ,³on ~190 ¦~ CO2 ¤~·|¬°¦a²y·Å«×ÃB¥~¼W¥[ 0.5 - 1.5 «×,¤]´N¶¡±µ¤Ï¬M¤F¥þ²y·x¤Æ¤ä«ùªÌ©Ò»¡ªº"¦MÀI"¨ä¹ê¦³¦h¤j ...... §ó°ò¦ªº°ÝÃD¬O, 190 ¦~«á,§ÚÌÁÙ¦³¨S¦³¤Æ¥Û¿U®Æ¥i¥H¿N?!)
[ ¥»©«³Ì«á¥Ñ sam19860521 ©ó 2010-1-15 01:11 ½s¿è ]
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