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2010-1-13 16:30#1
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sam19860521 (Sam Lau)
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Rank: 8Rank: 8



UID 16
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¥H¹L¥h¦Ê¦~¬°°ò¦,­Ó¤H»{¬° CO2 ­¿¼Wªº climate sensitivity ¦b 0.5 - 1.5 «×¤§¶¡,¤@©w¤£·|°ª©ó IPCC AR4 ©Ò»¡ªº 3.2 «×ªº¤@¥b,­ì¦]¤§«á¦A½Í

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Je pense, donc je suis -- Descartes¡@½Ð¥Î¤å©ú¨Ó»¡ªA§Ú -- ÀsÀ³¥x
2010-1-14 02:34#2
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edmundcmh
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Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7



UID 125
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[ ¥»©«³Ì«á¥Ñ edmundcmh ©ó 2010-1-14 19:02 ½s¿è ]




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2010-1-14 18:56#3
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sam19860521 (Sam Lau)
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Rank: 8Rank: 8



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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/100,000-year_problem

¦ý¦n¹³ÁÙ¬O¸ò CO2 ¼W¥[¤Þ°_®ð·Å¤W¤É¨S¦³¤Ó¤jÃö«Y§a ......

[ ¥»©«³Ì«á¥Ñ sam19860521 ©ó 2010-1-14 20:01 ½s¿è ]




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Je pense, donc je suis -- Descartes¡@½Ð¥Î¤å©ú¨Ó»¡ªA§Ú -- ÀsÀ³¥x
2010-1-14 19:57#4
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edmundcmh
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Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7



UID 125
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QUOTE:
­ì©«¥Ñ sam19860521 ©ó 2010-1-14 02:34 µoªí
¥H¹L¥h¦Ê¦~¬°°ò¦,­Ó¤H»{¬° CO2 ­¿¼Wªº climate sensitivity ¦b 0.5 - 1.5 «×¤§¶¡,¤@©w¤£·|°ª©ó IPCC AR4 ©Ò»¡ªº 3.2 «×ªº¤@¥b,­ì¦]¤§«á¦A½Í
¬O¤°»ò­ì¦]¡H


°£¤F¤G®ñ¤ÆºÒ¡AÀ³¸Ó«ÜÃø§ä¨ì¥t¥~¤@¨Ç¦]¯À¤Þ­Pªñ¦~®ð·Å¤W¤É§a...
(³o¬Oªñ¤d¦~¥¼´¿¦³¹Lªº¤W¤É)

¸`¿ýhttp://epa.gov/climatechange/science/pastcc.html#rates
Rates of Change
Studies of the Earth's previous climate suggest periods of stability as well as periods of rapid change. Recent climate research suggests:
Interglacial climates (such as the present) tend to be more stable than cooler, glacial climates. For example, the climate during the current and previous interglacials (known as the Holocene and Eemian interglacials) has been more stable than the most recent glacial period (known as the Last Glacial Maximum). This glacial period was characterized by a long string of widespread, large and abrupt climate changes (NRC, 2002).
Abrupt or rapid climate changes tend to frequently accompany transitions between glacial and interglacial periods (and vice versa). For example, a significant part of the Northern Hemisphere (particularly around Greenland) may have experienced warming rates of 14-28ºF over several decades during and after the most recent ice age (IPCC, 2007).
While abrupt climate changes have occurred throughout the Earth's history, human civilization arose during a period of relative climate stability.
ªñ¤d¦~ªºÁô©w®ð·Å¬Û«H¬O¥Ñ©ó«D¦Bªe®É´Á©Ò±a¨Óªº¡A¦Óªñ¦~ªº¤W¤É¤]³\¥u¯à°÷¥Î¤HÃþ¬¡°Ê¥h¸ÑÄÀ
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2010-1-14 21:34#5
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Hurricane
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When these gases are ranked by their contribution to the greenhouse effect, the most important are:

    * water vapor, which contributes 36¡V72%
    * carbon dioxide, which contributes 9¡V26%
    * methane, which contributes 4¡V9%
    * ozone, which contributes 3¡V7%

¥Ñ©ó¤j¶q¿U¿N¤Æ¥Û¿U®Æ¡A¹L¥h¤@¦Ê¦h¦~¤j®ð¤ºªº¤G®ñ¤ÆºÒ¿@«×ÅãµÛ¤W¤É¬O¤£ª§ªº¨Æ¹ê¡A¦ý¬Û¹ï©ó¤j®ð¤º¥»¨­¤w¸g¦³ªº¤j¶q¤ô®ð©Ò³y¦¨ªº¼vÅT¡A¤G®ñ¤ÆºÒ¼W¥[ªº´T«×¤S¬O§_¨¬¥HÅãµÛ¥[±j·Å«Ç®ÄÀ³ªºµ{«×©O¡H

ÁÙ¦³¡A§Ú­Ó¤H¹ï¥H¹q¸£¼Ò¦¡±Àºâ¥X¨Óªº·Å«×Åܤƹw´úªº·Ç½T©Ê«Ü¦³«O¯d¡C§Y¨Ïªñ¦~¼Æ­È¹w³øªº·Ç½T«×¦³©Ò¤W¤É¡A¦ý240¤p®Éªº¹w³ø¤w¸g¥i¥H¦³«Ü¤jªºÅܤơA´N¬O©Ò¿×ªº¡u½¹½º®ÄÀ³¡v¡A§ó¦óªp¬O¤@¥@¬ö¤§«áªº®ð­Ô©O¡C


³o¬O¤Ñ¤å¥x¹ï¥¼¨Ó¥b­Ó¥@¬ö­»´ä´H§N¤é¼ÆÅܤƪº¹w´ú¡A¥H¹q¸£¼Ò¦¡±Àºâ­»´ä¦b2000¦~-2009¦~¤¸¥­§¡¨C¦~ªº´H§N¤é¼Æ³Ì°ª¤]¤£·|¶W¹L10¤Ñ¡A¦ý¹ê»Ú¼Æ¦r«o¬O¥­§¡¨C¦~16.8¤é¡C¦pªG³o­Ó¥@¬É¬Æ»ò³£¥i¥H¥Î¥~±Àªk¡]extrapolation¡^¡A´N¤£·|¦³³o»ò¦h¤Hª£ªÑ²¼§Ë¨ì·l¤âÄê¸}¤F¡C

[ ¥»©«³Ì«á¥Ñ Hurricane ©ó 2010-1-14 23:31 ½s¿è ]




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2010-1-14 23:18#6
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sam19860521 (Sam Lau)
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Rank: 8Rank: 8



UID 16
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QUOTE:
­ì©«¥Ñ edmundcmh ©ó 2010-1-14 21:34 µoªí

¬O¤°»ò­ì¦]¡H
¨º»ò´N¥²¶·­n¦^¨ì¤ä«ù®ð­Ô·x¤Æ¤H¥Kªº¸tª« IPCC AR4 ¨­¤W
ref http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr.pdf

¦³¤@ÂI§Ú»Ý­n§ó¥¿,´N¬O IPCC ©Ò»{¬°ªº CO2 climate sensitivity ¤£¬O 3.2 «×,¦Ó¬O 3.0 «×
( " Progress since the TAR enables an assessment
that climate sensitivity is likely to be in the range of 2 to 4.5¢XC
with a best estimate of about 3¢XC"
From pg. 16 of IPCC AR4 )

¥Ñ 17 ªº¤å¦r¤Î 18 ­¶ªº¹Ï¤¤¥i¥H¬Ý¨ì IPCC »{¬° 70 ¦~¥N«á®t¤£¦h©Ò¦³ªº·x¤Æ³£¬O¤H¬°°µ¦¨,¨S¦³¥ô¦ó³¡¥÷¬O¥Ñ¦ÛµM¦]¯À¼vÅT --- (*)
( "Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures
since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the
observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations."
From pg. 17 in IPCC AR4 )

¦Ó°ò©ó 24 ­¶¹Ï¤¤ªº IPCC ªº®ð­Ô¼Ò«¬µ²ªG¥H¤Î 23 ­¶ªº¤å³¹©Ò«ü, 00 ¦Ü 20 ¦~®ð·Å·|Ä~Äò¥H¨C¤Q¦~ 0.2 «×¤W¤É,¦P®É, IPCC ¤£»{¬°¦ÛµM®ð­ÔÅܤƷ|¹ï¦a²y·Å«×¦³¥ô¦ó¼vÅT
( "For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2¢XC per decade
is projected for a range of SRES emissions scenarios.
Even if the concentrations of all GHGs and aerosols had
been kept constant at year 2000 levels, a further warming of
about 0.1¢XC per decade would be expected."
From pg. 24 in IPCC AR4 )

¦ý°ÝÃD¬O, 98 ¦~¤Ìº¸¥§¿Õ¥H¤Î 99-00 ¦~©Ô¥§®R«á¦a²y®ð·Å¨Ã¨S¦³¦p IPCC ©Ò®Æ¤W¤É,¦Ó¬O¤j¬ù«ù¥­ ( ref http://www.drroyspencer.com/wp-c ... 979_thru_Dec_09.jpg )
¤]´N¬O»¡, 00 ¦~¥H«á¥X²{¤F«ù¥­·Å«×¬O¥Ñ IPCC ¤£ª¾¹Dªº¦ÛµM´`Àô¤Þ°_,©Ò¥H IPCC ®Ú¾Ú(*)³o­Ó¦Ó¦ô­pªº CO2 climate sensitivity ªÖ©w¬O°ª¦ô¤F
¦Ó°ò©ó¹L¥h¤Q¦~®ð­Ô«ù¥­³o­Ó°ò·Ç,¥H¤Î IPCC »{¬° 70 ¦~¥N«á©Ò¦³ªº·x¤Æ³£¥Ñ¤H©Ò°µ¦¨³o¨â­Ó¤wª¾¨Æ¹ê,¥i¥H±À½ IPCC "70 ¦~¥N«á©Ò¦³ªº·x¤Æ³£¥Ñ¤H©Ò°µ¦¨"³o­Óµ²½×,¦Ó¤S¦]¹L¥h¤T¤Q¦~¤j®ðªº CO2 §t¶q¨C¦~¥Hí©wªº 2 ppm ªº¤ô¥­¼Wªø,©Ò¥H¥ý¦æ°²³]¤HÃþ¼vÅT®ð­Ôªº factor ¬O¤@­Ó constant,¹L¥h¤Q¦~®ð·Å«ù¥­¤]´N¬O»¡ CO2 climate sensitivity ¤£¥i¯à¶W¹L­ì¦ô­pªº¤@¥b,©Ò¥H±o¥X"¤@©w¤£·|°ª©ó IPCC AR4 ©Ò»¡ªº 3.2 «×ªº¤@¥b"¤@¥y

¦Ü©ó¦³Ãö"­Ó¤H»{¬° CO2 ­¿¼Wªº climate sensitivity ¦b 0.5 - 1.5 «×¤§¶¡"¤@¥y,¤W­­ 1.5 «×¤W­±¤w¦³¸ÑÄÀ,¤U­­¼Æ¥Ø climate sensitivity «h¬O¨Ó¦Û Monckton (2008)

( ­n°O±o³o¬O»¡ CO2 ¥Ñ²{¤ô¥­,§Y 388 ppm ­¿¼W¤~¥i¥H¦³ 0.5 - 1.5 «×ªº¼W·Å,¤]´N­n­nÃB¥~ªº 388 ppm,¥H¹L¥h¤T¤Q¦~í©wªº 2 ppm ¼Wªø­pºâ,³o­n ~190 ¦~ CO2 ¤~·|¬°¦a²y·Å«×ÃB¥~¼W¥[ 0.5 - 1.5 «×,¤]´N¶¡±µ¤Ï¬M¤F¥þ²y·x¤Æ¤ä«ùªÌ©Ò»¡ªº"¦MÀI"¨ä¹ê¦³¦h¤j ...... §ó°ò¦ªº°ÝÃD¬O, 190 ¦~«á,§Ú­ÌÁÙ¦³¨S¦³¤Æ¥Û¿U®Æ¥i¥H¿N?!)

[ ¥»©«³Ì«á¥Ñ sam19860521 ©ó 2010-1-15 01:11 ½s¿è ]




¤@¥ó¨Æ¨ÒµL½×µ²ªG¦p¦ó´c¦H¡A·í¦^·¹¨ä³Ìªìªº®Ú·½®É¡A©¹©¹¬O¥X©ó¤@¤ùµ½·N - ¦¶§Q´µ¡E³Í¼»
Je pense, donc je suis -- Descartes¡@½Ð¥Î¤å©ú¨Ó»¡ªA§Ú -- ÀsÀ³¥x
2010-1-15 00:50#7
¬d¬Ý¸ê®Æ  Blog  µoµu®ø®§  ³»³¡
 
sam19860521 (Sam Lau)
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Rank: 8Rank: 8



UID 16
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¿n¤À 1902
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QUOTE:
­ì©«¥Ñ edmundcmh ©ó 2010-1-14 21:34 µoªí

°£¤F¤G®ñ¤ÆºÒ¡AÀ³¸Ó«ÜÃø§ä¨ì¥t¥~¤@¨Ç¦]¯À¤Þ­Pªñ¦~®ð·Å¤W¤É§a...
(³o¬Oªñ¤d¦~¥¼´¿¦³¹Lªº¤W¤É)
¦a²y¦]¬°¶³¶q¦h¤ÖªºÅܤƦӤް_ªº¦a²y¤Ï·Ó²vÅܤƦü¥G¬O³Ì¦³¥i¯àªº¡u­Ô¿ï¨ÎÄR¡v,­nª¾¹D¦a²y 1% ªº¶³¶qÅܤƤw¸g¨¬°÷¤Þ°_©M CO2 ¼W¥[¤@­¿®t¤£¦hªº®ÄªG -- IPCC AR4 ­p¥Xªº CO2 forcing ¤~¥u¦³ 1.6W/m2,¦Ó¹L¥h´X¤Q¦~ªº solar irradiance «o¬O¦b 1365 - 1367 W/m2 ¤ô¥­±r«Þ ( ref http://upload.wikimedia.org/wiki ... olar-cycle-data.png )
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¥t¥~,§Ú©Ò§ä¨ìªº¸ê®Æ©M§Aªº¦³ÂI¥X¤J,¤U¹Ï¬O¥t¤@¨Ç¬ì¾Ç®a¥Î´Óª«¥Íªøªº¤èªk±o¥X¹L¥h 2000 ¦~ªº·Å«×¨«¶Õ,§A¨º¤@´T¨S¦³¬Ý¿ùÀ³¸Ó¬O IPCC ªº ~


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Je pense, donc je suis -- Descartes¡@½Ð¥Î¤å©ú¨Ó»¡ªA§Ú -- ÀsÀ³¥x
2010-1-15 02:28#8
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edmundcmh
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Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7



UID 125
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QUOTE:
­ì©«¥Ñ Hurricane ©ó 2010-1-14 23:18 µoªí
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When these gases are ranked by their contribution to the greenhouse effect, the most important are:

    * water vapor, which contributes 36¡V72%
    * carbon dioxide, which co ...
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¥ÒÖJ¯à«P¨Ïªº·Å«Ç®ÄÀ³¤ñ¤G®ð¤ÆºÒ±j60­¿¡A¦ÓNitrous Oxide¬O270­¿¡C

QUOTE:
­ì©«¥Ñ sam19860521 ©ó 2010-1-15 00:50 µoªí

¦Ü©ó¦³Ãö"­Ó¤H»{¬° CO2 ­¿¼Wªº climate sensitivity ¦b 0.5 - 1.5 «×¤§¶¡"¤@¥y,¤W­­ 1.5 «×¤W­±¤w¦³¸ÑÄÀ,¤U­­¼Æ¥Ø climate sensitivity «h¬O¨Ó¦Û Monckton (2008)

( ­n°O±o³o¬O»¡ CO2 ¥Ñ²{¤ô¥­,§Y 388 ppm ­¿¼W¤~¥i¥H¦³ 0.5 - 1.5 «×ªº¼W·Å,¤]´N­n­nÃB¥~ªº 388 ppm,¥H¹L¥h¤T¤Q¦~í©wªº 2 ppm ¼Wªø­pºâ,³o­n ~190 ¦~ CO2 ¤~·|¬°¦a²y·Å«×ÃB¥~¼W¥[ 0.5 - 1.5 «×,¤]´N¶¡±µ¤Ï¬M¤F¥þ²y·x¤Æ¤ä«ùªÌ©Ò»¡ªº"¦MÀI"¨ä¹ê¦³¦h¤j ...... §ó°ò¦ªº°ÝÃD¬O, 190 ¦~«á,§Ú­ÌÁÙ¦³¨S¦³¤Æ¥Û¿U®Æ¥i¥H¿N?!)
¤G®ð¤ÆºÒªº climate sensitivity ¬O0.5-1.5«×ªº¸Ü¡A¨º»ò¨ä¥L·Å«Ç®ðÅé©O¡H¥[¤W¥¦­Ì®£©È¤£¥u³o­Ó¼Æ¦r¡C
¦Ü©ó§A»¡ªºIPCC¡A²{¹ê¤¤¦ÛµM®ð­Ô®Ú¥»¤£¥i¯à¤@ÂI¤]¼vÅT¤£¨ì¥þ²y·x¤Æ§a¡C
¬Ý¤@¬ÝNOAAªº¤@¥÷³ø§i¡Ghttp://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cms-filesystem-action?file=/user_files/kd/pdf/onepageb01.pdf
®ð·Å¤W¤É¥i¯à»Ý­nreaction time¡A§Ú¦bµo¤å#3¤]»¡¹L¡G
(¦b¤Q¸U¦~«eªº¨º¤@¦¸¼@ÅÜ¡ACO2°ª®p¤ñ·Å«×°ª®p¨¬¨¬¦­¤F2200¦~¡A¤j·§¬O¦]¬°·Å«ÇÀx¦s¼ö¶q»Ý®É§a)
¦Ó§Ú¦A¦¸Â½¬d¡Aµo²{¤G¤Q¦h¸U¦~«eªº¼@Åܤ]¦³¦P¤@­Ó³W«ß¡A¦Ó®É¶¡§óªø(2500¦~)
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©Ò¥H¡Aªñ¦Ê¦~ªº¤W¤É¬O§_¥u¬O·É®ü¤@µ¯©O¡H¦pªG¯uªº"¦nÀ¸¦b«áÀY"¡A®£©È°ò©ó¹L¥h¦Ê¦~®ð·Å¤W¤É¥h¬ã¨s·|«Ü¦MÀI¡C
·íµM¡A¤Þ¥Î¤Q¸U¦~¤§Á¼¤Ó¦MÀI¤F¡C
¥t¥~¡A²Ó¤ß¬Ý¤G®ñ¤ÆºÒªº¤W¤ÉÁͶաA60-70¦~¥N¨C¤Q¦~¤É10ppm¡A²{¦b¤w¤É20ppm¡A¥D­n¬O¦]¬°´ËªL¬å¥ï©Ò­P¡C

QUOTE:
­ì©«¥Ñ sam19860521 ©ó 2010-1-15 02:28 µoªí


¦a²y¦]¬°¶³¶q¦h¤ÖªºÅܤƦӤް_ªº¦a²y¤Ï·Ó²vÅܤƦü¥G¬O³Ì¦³¥i¯àªº¡u­Ô¿ï¨ÎÄR¡v,­nª¾¹D¦a²y 1% ªº¶³¶qÅܤƤw¸g¨¬°÷¤Þ°_©M CO2 ¼W¥ )
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¦nÃø·Q¹³¦³¤H¥ò§é¼Z¹L§Ú......
2010-1-15 22:16#9
¬d¬Ý¸ê®Æ  Blog  µoµu®ø®§  ³»³¡
 
sam19860521 (Sam Lau)
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Rank: 8Rank: 8



UID 16
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QUOTE:
­ì©«¥Ñ edmundcmh ©ó 2010-1-15 22:16 µoªí


¹ï¡A¥u½×¤G®ñ¤ÆºÒ¬O¤£°÷ªº(§Ú«ç»ò·|¤@ª½³£¥u»¡¤G®ñ¤ÆºÒ¡H)
§ÚÁöµM¤£ª¾¹D¤ô»]¨T¯à«P¨Ïªº·Å«Ç®ÄÀ³¡A¦ý¥Ñ©ó¤Ï·Ó²v·|¼W¥[¡A³oºØ·Å«Ç®ðÅ餣¯à±a¨Ó¸û±j·Å«Ç®ÄÀ³¡C
¥ÒÖJ¯à«P¨Ïªº·Å«Ç®ÄÀ³¤ñ¤G®ð¤ÆºÒ±j60­¿¡A¦ÓNitrous Oxide¬O270­¿¡C
CH4 ©M NO2 ÁöµM·Å«Ç®ÄÀ³©úÅã±o¦h,¦ý¥÷¶q¤Ó¤Ö¤F ..... ( ³æ¦ì¬O ppb,§Y ppm ªº¤d¥÷¤§¤@ )
¯d·N wiki ªº¤ñ¨Ò,¦pªG CO2 ªº climate sensitivity ¤~ 0.5 - 1.5 «×ªº, CH4 ©M NO2 ·|¦³´X¦h?³o¨â­Ó¤ñ¨Ò¤WµL½×¦p¦ó¥[,¥[°_¨Ó¦p¦ó³£¤£¥i¯à°ª©ó 0.5 «×§a

QUOTE:
­ì©«¥Ñ edmundcmh ©ó 2010-1-15 22:16 µoªí


ªñ¦Ê¦~¨Ó¥­§¡¶³¶q¦³©ÒÅܤơH
§Ú¯uªº¤£ª¾¹D,¦]¬°²{®Éªº½Ã¬P³£¨S¦³¶q«×¦a²yªº¶³¶qÅܤÆ,¦ý§Ú³o­Ó²q·Q¬O¦³¸û°ª¥i¯à©Ê,¦L¶H¤¤²{®Éªº cloud forcing ¤£¤Ö©ó 40-50W/m2




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Je pense, donc je suis -- Descartes¡@½Ð¥Î¤å©ú¨Ó»¡ªA§Ú -- ÀsÀ³¥x
2010-1-15 23:32#10
¬d¬Ý¸ê®Æ  Blog  µoµu®ø®§  ³»³¡
 
edmundcmh
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Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7



UID 125
ºëµØ 0
¿n¤À 697
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QUOTE:
­ì©«¥Ñ sam19860521 ©ó 2010-1-15 23:32 µoªí


CH4 ©M NO2 ÁöµM·Å«Ç®ÄÀ³©úÅã±o¦h,¦ý¥÷¶q¤Ó¤Ö¤F ..... ( ³æ¦ì¬O ppb,§Y ppm ªº¤d¥÷¤§¤@ )
¯d·N wiki ªº¤ñ¨Ò,¦pªG CO2 ªº climate sensitivity ¤~ 0.5 - 1.5 «×ªº, CH4 ©M NO2 ·|¦³´X¦h?³o¨â­Ó¤ñ¨Ò¤WµL½×¦p¦ó ...
¥X°Ê­p¼Æ¾÷¬J®É­Ô= =
²{®ÉCH4¿@«×=1.75ppm
­¼CH4ªº®·®»¼ö¶q¯à¤O¬°CO2  60­¿
±N¥i·B¬ü105ppmCO2
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±N¥i·B¬ü89ppmCO2
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©Ò¥H¥[¦h¤@¥b(0.75-2.2«×)®t¤£¦h°Õ


¬Q±ß­n°Vı©Ò¥H¼g­ø«{¡C
IPCCªºrange¬O2-4.5«×¡A¥L»¡¬Obest estimate3«×¡A§Aªº¤W­­¤£À³¸Ó¬O2.2«×¶Ü¡H
¥t¥~¡A§Ú¤£¤Ó©ú¥Õ§A¬°¤°»ò·|§â¨º­Órange´î¤@¥b¡C
¬O¦]¬°IPCC¼g00¦Ü20¦~·|¨C¤@¦~¥N¤É0.2«×¡H
§Ú¦n¹³¨S¦³§ä¨ì00¦Ü20¦~¡A¥u§ä¨ì¡G
For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2 degree C. per decade is projected......
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´NºâIPCC¼g00¦Ü20¦~·|¨C¤@¦~¥N¤É0.2«×¡A¦ÓÀY10¦~®ð·Åºû«ù¤£ÅÜ¡A´N¯à§âCO2¹ï±N¨Óªº¼vÅT´î¥b¡H
ÁÙ¦³§ó­«­nªº¬O¡A2-4.5«×³o­Órange¬O»¡CO2 doubled¬Jsensitivety¡A»P00¦Ü20¦~·|¨C¤@¦~¥N¤É0.2«×µLÃö¡C
½ÐSam­ô«ü¥X§Úªº»~¸Ñ= =




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¦nÃø·Q¹³¦³¤H¥ò§é¼Z¹L§Ú......
2010-1-16 15:48#11
¬d¬Ý¸ê®Æ  Blog  µoµu®ø®§  ³»³¡
 
sam19860521 (Sam Lau)
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Rank: 8Rank: 8



UID 16
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QUOTE:
­ì©«¥Ñ edmundcmh ©ó 2010-1-16 15:48 µoªí

¥X°Ê­p¼Æ¾÷¬J®É­Ô= =
²{®ÉCH4¿@«×=1.75ppm
­¼CH4ªº®·®»¼ö¶q¯à¤O¬°CO2  60­¿
±N¥i·B¬ü105ppmCO2
+
²{®ÉN2O¿@«×=0.33ppm
­¼N2Oªº®·®»¼ö¶q¯à¤O¬°CO2  270­¿
±N¥i·B¬ü89ppmCO2
=¥i·B¬ü194ppm
©Ò¥H¥[¦h¤@¥b(0.75-2.2«×)®t¤£¦h°Õ
wait, ®t D ­Ú§A§c¨ì,§Ú¤W­±¤@ª½Á¿ªº«Y CO2 climate sensitivity = . =

QUOTE:
­ì©«¥Ñ edmundcmh ©ó 2010-1-16 15:48 µoªí

¬O¦]¬°IPCC¼g00¦Ü20¦~·|¨C¤@¦~¥N¤É0.2«×¡H
§Ú¦n¹³¨S¦³§ä¨ì00¦Ü20¦~¡A¥u§ä¨ì¡G
For the next two decades a warming of about 0.2 degree C. per decade is projected......
¯d·N³o¥÷³ø§i¬O2007¦~µo¥Xªº¡A¥¦·|§_«ü2010¦Ü2030©O¡H
´NºâIPCC¼g00¦Ü20¦~·|¨C¤@¦~¥N¤É0.2«×¡A¦ÓÀY10¦~®ð·Åºû«ù¤£ÅÜ¡A´N¯à§âCO2¹ï±N¨Óªº¼vÅT´î¥b¡H
¥i¥HÚ»ªð 24 ­¶ªº¹Ï,´N·|¨£¨ìÊ\«üªº¥¼¨Ó 20 ¦~«Y 00 ¦~°_ªº 20 ¦~,¦Ó¤£¬O 10 ¦~°_ªº 20 ¦~
¥¿¦p¤Ñ¤å¥x 08 ¦~ 3 ¤ë¥Xªº 00 - 09 ´H§N¤Ñ®ð¤é¼Æªº forecast ¤@¼Ë,¥Ñ©ó¸Ó®É´Á¥¼§¹µ²,©Ò¥H¤´µM¬OÄÝ©ó forecast ªº¤@Ãþ

¥t¥~,´î¥bªº²z¥Ñ¤§«e¤w¸gÁ¿±o´X²M·¡¤U,¦AÁ¿¤@¦¸
¥Ñ¤W­±©ÒÁ¿ªº¹Ï¥i¨£, IPCC »{¬°¦ÛµM¶g´Á¦b 70 ¦~¥N°_´N¨S¦³¬°¦a²y±a¨ÓÃB¥~¼W·Å,¦b¥¼¨Óªº 20 ¦~¤]¤£·|¬°¦a²y±a¨Ó­°·Å ( ¥Î 2000 constant ªºªG±ø½u´N¥i¥HÚ»¨ì IPCC ¹ï¥¼¨Ó 100 ¦~¦ÛµM¼vÅTªºÚ»ªk )
¬JµM IPCC »{¬° 00 - 10 ·|¦³ 0.2 «×ªº¼W·Å¦Ó²{¹ê¤£¦¨¯u,¨º´N¥i¥H»¡©ú¤j¦ÛµM¥X²{¤F IPCC ¤£ª¾¹Dªº¦ÛµM¶g´Á¼vÅT,¦Ó¥B¯à°÷©M¤H¬°¦]¯À¥´¦¨¥­¤â,©Ò¥H IPCC ªº¦ô­p²³æ¨Ó»¡´N¬O°ª¦ô¤F CO2 ªº¼vÅT¹F¤@­¿, implied ªº CO2 climate sensitivity ´N¦ÛµM´î¥b
³o­Ó»¡ªk¤j­P©M IPCC ªº±M®a Mojib Latif »¡ªk®t¤£¦h ( http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ ... global-COOLING.html )

QUOTE:
­ì©«¥Ñ edmundcmh ©ó 2010-1-16 15:48 µoªí


IPCCªºrange¬O2-4.5«×¡A¥L»¡¬Obest estimate3«×¡A§Aªº¤W­­¤£À³¸Ó¬O2.2«×¶Ü¡H
³o³B²o¯Aªº¬O»~®t¦ô­p,À³¸Ó­n¥Ñ http://epa.gov/climatechange/science/recenttc_triad.html ¶}©l,¤U­­ªº 2 «×©M¤W­­ªº 4.5 «×¬O¥Ñ 70 ¦~¥N°_ªº³Ì¤Ö¼W·Å¥H¤Î³Ì¤j¼W·Å©Ò­p¥X,¥H 70 ¦~¥N°_ªº·Å«×¶q«×¬ì§Þ,¨ú best estimate ¨ä¹ê¤w¸g¬Û·í¨¬°÷

¨ä¹ê³Ìªñ¥þ²y·x¤Æ³o­Ó¸ÜÃD¤§©Ò¥H¦A¦¸©ð¥X¾¤Á¿
¦U¦a´H¼é¥u¬Oªí­±ªº­ì¦],³Ì®Ú¥»ªº¨Ó·½¬O¦b©ó®ð­Ôªù ( Climategate )
®ð­Ôªù¤@§Ð¤¤³B²z IPCC ¸ê®Æªº¬ì¾Ç®a³Qµo²{³y°²¼Æ¥H¥O¥þ²y·x¤Æ¬Ý°_¨Ó¤ñ¸ûÄY­«
¬JµM¸ê®Æ¬O°²ªº,¨º»ò·x¤Æ¦ó¨Ó?
¹D¼w°ª¦aªº²_³à¥O¤H¤£¸T½è°Ýªá³o¼Ë¦h¿ú¥h¹ï§Ü©Ò¿×ªº¥þ²y·x¤Æªº·N¸q¦ó¦b,­ü

¦³Ãö®ð­Ôªù¸ê®Æ:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=unKZhr3JMhA&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Clpmt5_8MBg&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YVDHbOu7Sq8&feature=related
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/new ... ate-global-warming/
http://www.kusi.com/weather/colemanscorner/81559212.html




¤@¥ó¨Æ¨ÒµL½×µ²ªG¦p¦ó´c¦H¡A·í¦^·¹¨ä³Ìªìªº®Ú·½®É¡A©¹©¹¬O¥X©ó¤@¤ùµ½·N - ¦¶§Q´µ¡E³Í¼»
Je pense, donc je suis -- Descartes¡@½Ð¥Î¤å©ú¨Ó»¡ªA§Ú -- ÀsÀ³¥x
2010-1-16 19:22#12
¬d¬Ý¸ê®Æ  Blog  µoµu®ø®§  ³»³¡
 
RedRabbit (¤pR)
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Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7



UID 20
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Make it fun! Don't fire them, fire them up. by Frank Pacetta
We have to recognize that we don't have any monopoly on innovation and brains in the world - Peter McClough
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2010-1-16 22:05#13
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sam19860521 (Sam Lau)
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QUOTE:
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¹L¥h¤Q¦~¥­§¡¤@¦~¨C¦~¤j®ð CO2 ¼W¥[ 2ppm,¤Q¦~§Y 20 ppm
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¤Q¦~¶¡¦]¬° CO2 ªº¼W·Å´N¬O 3«×*(20ppm/368ppm),§Y¨C¤@¦~¼W·Å 0.163 «× ( assume linear )
¦ý¦]¬°¤£¬O linear ªº­ì¦],«e¬qªº¼W·Å·|¤ñ«á¬q¼W·Å¦h,©Ò¥H IPCC ·|¼g¥X¨C¤Q¦~¼W·Å 0.2 «×³o­Óµ²½×,«Ü¦X²z
( ·Q·Q¥Ñ 260 ppm ¥[­¿¦Ü 460 ppm ªº¸Ü, 3 «× climate sensitivity ·|±o¥X 20 ppm ±a¨Ó¼W·Å 0.231 «×´N¤j¬ù©ú¥Õ ~ )

¦pªG CO2 ªº climate sensitivity ´î¦Ü 0.5 - 1.5 «×,¨º»ò 20ppm ªº¼W¥[´N¥u·|¬°·Å«×±a¨Ó 0.027 ¦Ü 0.081 «×,¦A¥[¤W¦ÛµM¦]¯Àªº¸Ü¼W·Å«Ü¥i¯à¤£©úÅã




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Je pense, donc je suis -- Descartes¡@½Ð¥Î¤å©ú¨Ó»¡ªA§Ú -- ÀsÀ³¥x
2010-1-17 00:19#14
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edmundcmh
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Rank: 7Rank: 7Rank: 7



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QUOTE:
­ì©«¥Ñ sam19860521 ©ó 2010-1-16 19:22 µoªí


wait, ®t D ­Ú§A§c¨ì,§Ú¤W­±¤@ª½Á¿ªº«Y CO2 climate sensitivity = . =
¨S¿ù°Ú¡A§A¤W­±¤@ª½Á¿ CO2 climate sensitivity ¡A¦Ó§Ú¦A¥[¤W¥t¥~¨âºØ·Å«Ç®ðÅ骺climate sensitivity

QUOTE:
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¥Ñ¤W­±©ÒÁ¿ªº¹Ï¥i¨£, IPCC »{¬°¦ÛµM¶g´Á¦b 70 ¦~¥N°_´N¨S¦³¬°¦a²y±a¨ÓÃB¥~¼W·Å,¦b¥¼¨Óªº 20 ¦~¤]¤£·|¬°¦a²y±a¨Ó­°·Å ( ¥Î 2000 constant ªºªG±ø½u´N¥i¥HÚ»¨ì IPCC ¹ï¥¼¨Ó 100 ¦~¦ÛµM¼vÅTªºÚ»ªk )
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QUOTE:
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QUOTE:
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2010-1-17 12:29#15
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RedRabbit (¤pR)
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[ ¥»©«³Ì«á¥Ñ RedRabbit ©ó 2010-1-17 15:14 ½s¿è ]




Make it fun! Don't fire them, fire them up. by Frank Pacetta
We have to recognize that we don't have any monopoly on innovation and brains in the world - Peter McClough
§ùÃY³Ú¦å©]«B®É ¤ÑÃZ¦±¶µ±m­i¶¡
2010-1-17 15:07#16
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edmundcmh
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QUOTE:
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®ü¯W¤@ª½³£¦b¬å¾ð¡A¬°¬Æ»ò¨S¦³°ÝÃD¡C§Ú­Ì»Ý­nªº¬O¤Ï«ä»P¦ÛµMªºÃö«Y¡AÁÙ¬O¤@¨ý¸T¸T¸T¡H
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QUOTE:
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2010-1-17 15:57#17
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Hurricane
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¨Æ¹ê¤W¡A§Y¨Ï¨S¦³¥þ²y·x¤Æªº°ÝÃD¡A¤]¤£¥Nªí¥i¥H¤£¸`¨î¦a¨Ï¥Î¤Æ¥Û¿U®Æ¡A¦]¬°¤Æ¥Û¿U®Æ²×¦³¯ÓºÉªº¤@¤Ñ¡C¹q¤O¤è­±¥i¥H®Ö¯àµo¹q¨Ó¥N´À¡A­n¥Í²£¦³¾÷¤Æ¦Xª«¥i¨ú¦Û°Ê´Óª«¡A¦ý¥þ³£·|¤Þ°_¨ä¥L°ÝÃD¡C§Úı±oÀ³¸Ó§â¸ê·½©ñ¦b¬ã¨s´î§C¨Ï¥Î¤Æ¥Û¿U®Æªº´À¥Nª«ªº°Æ§@¥Î§ó¬°­«­n¡C




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2010-1-17 16:30#18
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RedRabbit (¤pR)
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QUOTE:
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"¤HÃþ°^Ämªº¤@«×"¡A¤@¨Ó¤pR¤£²M·¡³o¬O§_¤HÃþ¤Þ°_¡A¤G¨Ó¤@­Ó¤H«ç¯à§ïÅÜ¥þ²y¡H
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P.S. ±j¯P«ØÄ³¤j®a§äNational Geographic ¤@®M¥sMeet the Natives (¼¯µn­ì©l¤H)ªº¸`¥Ø¡A¬Ý¤gµÛ«ç¼Ë¬Ý§Ú­Ìªº¥Í¬¡

[ ¥»©«³Ì«á¥Ñ RedRabbit ©ó 2010-1-17 16:57 ½s¿è ]




Make it fun! Don't fire them, fire them up. by Frank Pacetta
We have to recognize that we don't have any monopoly on innovation and brains in the world - Peter McClough
§ùÃY³Ú¦å©]«B®É ¤ÑÃZ¦±¶µ±m­i¶¡
2010-1-17 16:39#19
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sam19860521 (Sam Lau)
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QUOTE:
­ì©«¥Ñ edmundcmh ©ó 2010-1-17 15:57 µoªí

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©Ò¥H·Å«Ç®ðÅ骺climate sensitivity·|¬OIPCCªº¦ô­p
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¦^¨ì©Ò¿×"¬Æ»ò¬O¦ÛµM¼vÅT",§Ú¦b#02 ¦³»¡¹L³°¦a-¤j®ð-®ü¬v¾_Àú
¦Ó³o¨Ç¾_Àú©Ò»¡ªº,¨ä¹ê¬O AO, PDO, AMO, AAO ¤@Ãþ
AAO ¬O¦p¦ó§Ú¤£ª¾¹D,¦ý§Ú»{ª¾¤¤ AO, PDO ¨â­Ó¦b 40-70 ¦~¥N§e­t¬Û, AMO ¦b 60-80 ¦~¥N§e­t¬Û,¥þ²y®ð·Å¦b 40 ¦~¥N¨ì 70 ¦~¥N¦b¤T­Ó¾_ÀúÅ|¥[¤§¤U¦³©Ò¤U­°, 80 ¦~¥N¤T­ÓÅ|¥[«á¥X²{»´·L¤W¤É,¨ì 90 ¦~¥N¦Ü 08 ¦~¤T­Ó³£¬O¥¿¬Û®É¥þ²y®ð·Å¤j´T¤W¤É,³o¨Ç´N¬O§Ú»¡ªº¦ÛµM¼vÅT

¦Ü©ó¬°¤°»ò¬O¤@¥b?½Ð¥ý¬Ý²M·¡ IPCC ³ø§i¤¤¦ôºâ¹L¥h¤T¤Q¦~,¥H¤Î¥¼¨Ó¤@¦Ê¦~¦ÛµM¼vÅT³£¤£·|¬°¦a²y±a¨Ó¥ô¦óªº¤É­°·Å ( §Y¹L¥h¤T¤Q¦~ªº©Ò¦³¤É·Å³£¬O¨Ó¦Û¤HÃþ²£¥Íªº CO2 )
§Ú¬O¥H³o­Ó°ò¦¨Ó±ÀÂ_³o­Ó"¤@¥b"

¦pªG§A¤£»{¬°³o¨Ç¦ÛµM¼vÅT¹ï¥þ²y®ð·Å¦³¼vÅTªº¸Ü,¨º»ò,½Ð©M§Ú¸ÑÄÀ¬°¤°»ò 40 - 70 ¦~¥N¥þ²y®ð·Å¤U­°,¥t¹L¥h¤Q¦~ªº¥þ²y®ð·Å«ù¥­,¥t¥~½Ð°O±o 00 - 08 ¦~ AO, AMO ¥H¤Î PDO ¤T­Ó¾_Àú³£¬O¥¿¬Û,¬O¨S¦³¬°¦a²y±a¨Ó­°·Åªº®ÄªG,Ãø¹D CO2 ³o¤K¦~´N¨S¦³¬°¦a²y±a¨Ó¤É·Å?­±¹ï³o¼Ë½ÆÂøªº¤j¦ÛµM,§Ú¹ç³\¦Û¤vÁ¾¨õªº»¡¤@¥y"¤£ª¾¹D",¤]¤£­n³o¼ËªZÂ_ªº»¡"³o¬O CO2 ªº¿ù,³o¬O¤Hªº¿ù"

[ ¥»©«³Ì«á¥Ñ sam19860521 ©ó 2010-1-17 17:36 ½s¿è ]




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Je pense, donc je suis -- Descartes¡@½Ð¥Î¤å©ú¨Ó»¡ªA§Ú -- ÀsÀ³¥x
2010-1-17 17:30#20
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 32  1/2  1  2  > 
     


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